Your country has a trade imbalance.

Global economics is complex with many agents (decision makers) and competing priorities. At times a country or group of countries may see an imbalance in trade. This may seem to increase supply chain risks or economic risks in the case of a future disagreement. In order to ensure the actions you take have the intended effects, it makes sense to take a step back and explore what other options you might have to address your current dilemma. Complex problems are often vague, and that means they have many possible solutions. The meta-problem you get to when you follow this process may be distant from the dilemma that started your quest. A key part of the meta-problem’s value is that it forces you to clarify what you really want and what you are willing to give up. It also enables you to compare objectively the possible pathways and their trade-offs. It prevents you locking into solutions mode too early, and then doubling down on solving a low-yield problem that does not serve your goals as well as the alternatives. At the end of this process, you will have a better understanding of your priorities and how to achieve them.

Step in the meta-problem	Illustrative Example
Dilemma The high-level issue you are trying to address	Your country has a trade imbalance.
Goal The changes you would like to make to address the dilemma. There are usually many options. Selecting the best set comes after you learn what is possible.	Supporting Goals Reduce imports. Increase exports. Increase domestically produced goods. Consume less. Mitigate the imbalance politically. Improve the prosperity of your citizens.
Problem Space While goals tell us what we want, our next step is to understand what is holding us back from making progress on them. This approach is borrowed from calculus as we explore the neighborhood of the current dilemma.	For each goal that you are considering, ask yourself: How much progress is possible? How much effort would it take to make progress? What methods might help to make progress? What might the positive or negative effects be on the other goals as you make progress towards the current one? Example Problems: How could we reduce imports a little? Is it possible to use tariffs or other restrictions without negatively impacting exports as well? How could we increase exports a little? Can we invest in the industries that lead to more exports like science and innovation? How could we increase domestically produced products a little? Will government sponsored investments be enough to incentivize local production? How could we get the country to consume less? Would reducing consumption have other negative effects on the economy? What risks does a trade imbalance lead to? Is the only risk increased prices, or is there a strategic need to invest in certain capabilities at home? How can the government improve the prosperity of their citizens? Is prosperity impacted by global trade positively or negatively or both?
High-Yield Problems Sometimes solving one problem helps make progress towards several goals. In this step, we identify these “two-for-the-price-of-one” problems.	Which Options Will Advance More Than One Goal? Invest in science and R&D. If this option is successful it will lead to increased exports and increase the amount of domestically produced goods. It may also mitigate the imbalance politically if our country has its own proprietary resources or it could improve prosperity if the right investments are made. Reduce imports through economic tools like tariffs. If chosen, this is likely to reduce imports and reduce consumption by raising costs to those in our country. It may lead to increased domestic production if the economic tools can be reliably planned for to ensure those investments make business sense. It may also lead to reduced prosperity depending on the political and other effects. Invest in domestic production. This option may lead to increased exports, decreased imports, and increase the amount of domestically produced goods. If selected, there is a subsequent step to choose which industries are the best investments. Mitigate specific risks. This option may lead to much more targeted interventions with less risk of collateral damage to the economy, global trade, and relationships. Et cetera.
Meta-Problem Which of the many possible options in the high-yield problem step is the best set to address the dilemma?	Selection Criteria Which solutions will best address the dilemma? Which solutions will deliver the best outcome for the least amount of time, effort and money? Which solutions meet our true needs best?
Implement, Learn and Adapt	Observe and learn as you go. New information may reveal itself as you implement your chosen solution, so check continuously that you’re still solving the right problem