Deciding which project to invest in.

It sometimes seems obvious which projects will have a good Return on Investment. Other times, it is less clear or you have too many competing options. At that point, it makes sense to take a step back and explore what other options you might have to address your current dilemma.

Complex problems are often vague, and that means they have many possible solutions. Following the Meta-Problem Method may lead you to a distant dilemma from the one that started your quest. A key part of the method's value is that it forces you to clarify what you really want and what you are willing to give up. It also enables you to compare objectively the possible pathways and their trade-offs. It prevents you locking into solutions mode too early, and then doubling down on solving a low-yield problem that does not serve your goals as well as the alternatives. At the end of this process, you will have a better understanding of your priorities and how to achieve them.

Step in the Meta-Problem Method	Illustrative Example
Dilemma The high-level issue you are trying to address	You need to decide which of a portfolio of projects is the best to invest in.
Goal The changes you would like to make to address the dilemma. There are usually many options. Selecting the best set comes after you learn what is possible.	Supporting Goals Increase revenue. Increase profitability. Grow your customer base.
Problem Space While goals tell us what we want, our next step is to understand what is holding us back from making progress on them. This approach is borrowed from calculus as we explore the neighborhood of the current dilemma.	For each goal that you are considering, ask yourself: How much progress is possible? How much effort would it take to make progress? What methods might help to make progress? What might the positive or negative effects be on the other goals as you make progress towards the current one? Example Problems: How could we increase revenues? Are there opportunities through better pricing or marketing?  For example, we might have noticed that we have been losing market share for several key products while the overall market grows. If so, it is possible the pricing is too high or our competitors are marketing more effectively. How could we increase profitability? Are there opportunities through better pricing or cost management?  For example, we may have been growing our market share in certain categories while losing profitability. If so, raising prices or reducing costs may be necessary to improve performance. How could we grow our customer base? Are there opportunities through better marketing or distribution?  For example, we may have invested in several new products, but have not seen customer adoption. If so, there may have been errors in the roll-out that could help grow our customer base. Could we launch a great new product? How would the options fit into our existing product lines?  For example, if we have not been investing in new market opportunities, we may fall behind our competitors in time. If so, it may be necessary for our long-term success that we begin new research projects. What R&D projects are worth investing in? Does it make sense to focus on low risk projects or more long-term opportunities?  For example, there may be new regulations in the coming years in your industry. If so, it may be necessary to focus on longer term investments.
High-Yield Problems Sometimes solving one problem helps make progress towards several goals. In this step, we identify these “two-for-the-price-of-one” problems.	Which Options Will Advance More Than One Goal? Complete a project to select better pricing. If this is needed it could help both revenue and profit. Complete a project to have better marketing. If this is needed it could improve revenues, profitability, and could also grow your customer base. Review opportunities to reduce costs. If this is useful it would improve profitability. Launch a new product. If this is a good option, it could increase revenues, profits, and grow your customer base. Improve distribution of existing products. If this is a good option, it could increase revenues, profits, and grow your customer base. Et cetera.
Problem Selection Which of the many possible options in the high-yield problem step is the best set to address the dilemma?	Decision Criteria Which problem will best support the goal? Which problem will deliver the best outcome for the least amount of time, effort and money? Which problem is not being solved by anyone else?  By this point in the Meta-Problem Method, you have clarified your goals, identified some options you could take, weighed the trade-offs that come with each of those options, rejected some options because they will take more time, effort or money than the results are worth, and you have identified a set of high-yield problems that will advance several of your goals at once. Now you are ready to start solving a problem knowing what you expect to achieve.
Implement, Learn and Adapt	Observe and learn as you go. New information may reveal itself as you implement your chosen solution, so check continuously that you’re still solving the right problem.